The UFC returns to action on Saturday with a stacked card in Jacksonville, Fla.
According to FanDuel, one of the leading online/mobile books in the Hoosier State, most customers are expecting the main event to be pure chaos.
The odds on Tony Ferguson (25-3) vs. Justin Gaethje (21-2) have fluctuated in the build-up to the bout.
Currently on FanDuel, Ferguson is a -190 favorite and Gaethje is a +160 underdog.
As of early Friday morning, 59% of the money bet was on Ferguson, with 41% on Gaethje.
One bettor at FanDuel stands to win $29,619 if Gaethje pulls off the win.
The anonymous gambler didn’t actually get Gaethje at the best price.
The customer staked a total of $11,893.45 over four bets on Gaethje.
- $4,910 at +150
- $1,300 at +150
- $2,000 at +148
- $3,683.45 at +148
Ferguson is riding a 12-fight win streak in the UFC, one of the longest in the history of the organization. Still, many experts see the fight going either way, due to Gaethje’s knockout power and Ferguson’s history of taking heavy shots in his fights. He’s been dropped a handful of times.
Ferguson is also 36 years old, typically outside the prime for a MMA athlete.
The money says barnburner
MMA analysts say this fight is going to be insane. The handle says that, too.
Per FanDuel, 88% of the handle for picking which round the fight will end in is on round No. 1 (+240).
Five percent is on the second round (+340), with just 1% each on round three (+500) or four (+650).
Interestingly, 5% of the handle in this market is on there being a finish in the fifth round (+850).
It’s rare for MMA fights to end in the fifth round, but the payoff on a bet is a larger one.
As for the market on how the fight will end, 80% of the wagering handle is on a KO/TKO finish (-150). Twelve percent of the handle is on a submission (+250).
It’s worth noting that Gaethje has only one submission win on his resume, way back in 2012.
In other words, that handle is essentially on Ferguson to win by submission, which many anticipate to come in the later rounds if it comes at all. Ferguson, a world-class grappler, has an impressive eight wins by sub in his storied career.
Just 8% of the handle is on the fight going to the judges (+370).
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