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The Colts are coming off of a heartbreaking primetime loss to the Texans in which they blew a fourth quarter lead and will get back at it against another division foe in a game that has a ton of playoff implications in a tight division – both the Titans and Colts sit at 6-5, a game behind the 7-4 Texans.
Weather won’t be an issue inside Lucas Oil Stadium, but both teams tend to lean more heavily on the run, which is exactly what we saw when these teams met back in September. Neither QB threw it more than 28 times and both teams ran the ball often and with efficiency. That game finished with a total of 36, and we’re not expecting a ton of fireworks this time around.
Indy is still without Marlon Mack, so they’ll lean on Jonathan Williams once again with Hines and Wilkins acting in complementary roles. We don’t think Mack’s absence has much of an impact on the total, but it doesn’t hurt under bettors at any of Indiana’s three online books — DraftKings, BetRivers, and FanDuel.
T.Y. Hilton’s status is currently up in the air and even while active in Week 12, he showed a lack of explosiveness and was only able to stay on the field for about 37% of the offensive snaps.
Given how important this game is for the Colts, we can see him giving it a go, but it seems like a foregone conclusion that he’s going to be limited physically. If he’s inactive, we could see the total shift slightly downward given the ineptitude at WR behind him.
While the Colts run defense is middle of the pack in terms of yards per attempt (4.3), they have been stingy over the last month and figure to make that a focal point with Derrick Henry on deck. The Titans offense runs through Henry and they’ll lean on him as long as possible, but Tannehill is probably due for some regression and that could very well come this week. The Titans seem to be one of those teams where the second you start believing in them, they give you reasons to be pessimistic. As great as the run game has been, this still isn’t an above-average offense.
The Colts (17th) and Titans (25th) both rank in the bottom half of the league in pace (seconds per play), and slow games are exactly what under bettors are looking for.
Both teams rank in the bottom seven in pace in neutral situations – close games – and with this one expected to be tight throughout, we’re hitting the under 43.5.
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