Hoping the extra days off did nothing to disrupt the rhythm of an offense firing on all cylinders, the Indianapolis Colts look to get back to .500 on Sunday when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC South showdown at Lucas Oil Stadium.
The Colts (4-5) enjoyed some extra down time ahead of this game after opening Week 9 with a 45-30 victory over the New York Jets on Nov. 4. Jonathan Taylor rushed for a season-high 172 yards, topping 100 for the fourth time in six games, as Indianapolis also had a season-best 532 total yards that was almost perfectly split between rushing and passing.
Taylor capped his 2020 rookie season in grand style at home against Jacksonville, rolling up a career-high 253 yards that included seven rushes of 10 or more yards. While second in the league with 821 yards, Taylor is the favorite (+130 at FanDuel) to win the rushing title now that current leader Derrick Henry is out with a foot injury. Taylor is also 100 yards clear of his closest pursuer, Cleveland’s Nick Chubb.
Indianapolis has scored 25 or more points in six straight games, averaging 31.5 in that span. Taylor has keyed a rushing attack that has rolled up 154.5 yards per game in that period, and the Colts have averaged 397.3 total yards during the surge.
Jacksonville (2-6) is seeking back-to-back wins for the first time in 33 games after stunning AFC East-leading Buffalo 9-6 last Sunday. Jaguars defensive end Josh Allen tormented his namesake, finishing with eight tackles plus a sack and an interception of the Bills quarterback to help make three field goals by Matthew Wright stand.
Top overall pick Trevor Lawrence matched a season low with 118 passing yards, but he also did not turn the ball over. For the season, he has completed 59.5% of his passes for 1,821 yards and eight touchdowns against nine interceptions.
The Colts have won the last three games against Jacksonville at Lucas Oil Field and seven of the last eight in Indianapolis. The Jaguars, however, are 10-1-1 against the spread in the last 12 matchups.
Looking at the main full-game offerings
Thursday Jonathan Taylor got his 3rd career game with at least 150 rush yards and multiple rush TDs.
That breaks a tie with Hall of Famers Edgerrin James and Eric Dickerson for the most in Colts franchise history. pic.twitter.com/gl1vMHckZT
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 5, 2021
The spread has not moved all that much since opening with the Colts favored by 10.5 points. Some operators — FanDuel, theScore Bet, BetMGM, Caesars, and the Kambi betting platform-powered BetRivers, Unibet, and Barstool Sportsbook — currently have that same number, while PointsBet, WynnBET, and DraftKings had settled on a flat -10 as of 1 p.m. CST on Friday.
At the higher number, FanDuel paces the listings at -105, followed by Kambi at -108 and theScore Bet, BetMGM, and Caesars all at -110. PointsBet and WynnBET are both offering -110 at the lower number, with DraftKings trailing at -115.
The moneyline is not exactly cost-effective, which is to be expected with a double-digit spread. At -455, BetRivers and Unibet are the top offering in this category, followed by WynnBET (-470) and Caesars (-475). FanDuel (-480) and DraftKings (-490) are also offering plays better than -500.
In contrast to the spread, the over/under has moved significantly downward, as the Jaguars have totaled just 16 points in their last two games. After opening at 51 points, it has slid to 47.5 at most places, though Wynn is a holdout at 48 points with -110 on both sides. Kambi moved downward to 47, offering a -112/-109 split at that number.
At 47.5 points, the over can be grabbed at -105 at DraftKings, with -110 the best play on the under at multiple sportsbooks.
Wagering on the team total for the Colts will require some courage because it is high regardless of sportsbook, and some are playing a high-side hook on a touchdown total at 28.5 points. At that number, WynnBET and PointsBet are the best plays for the over at -115, while BetMGM is offering even money on the under. The other number currently circulating is 29.5 points, with Caesars and FanDuel offering -110 in both directions to be among the best offers, along with Kambi on the over and BetMGM on the under, also at -110.
First-half plays to ponder
— IndyStarSports (@IndyStarSports) November 12, 2021
There is less hook stress on the first-half spread, though PointsBet’s offerings in 2-point intervals has created a dynamic in which bettors can take the Colts -5.5 at -125 or -7.5 at +125. Others have opted for either Indianapolis -6 or -6.5 for the first two quarters, with -110 the best play on the lower number at various books and DraftKings offering -105 on the higher number.
The two-way moneyline is -300 or higher everywhere, but bettors can knock that down as low as -260 on a three-way play at FanDuel, with DraftKings close behind at -265.
The hook comes back into play on a key passthrough for the total, with 23.5 points the most common offering. TheScore and BetMGM lead over offers at -110, while DraftKings and Caesars both have -105 on the under. FanDuel is opting for a flat 24 with a +105/-125 split, while the Kambi platform is trying to entice bettors with a +110 play on the over at 24.5 points, compared to -148 on the under.
The high-side hook is in play for the Colts’ first-half team total at 14.5 points, with WynnBET (+110) and FanDuel (+105) offering plus-money plays for bettors thinking the Colts can get the needed three scores to deliver.
Photo by Marc Lebryk/USA TODAY