Kamaru Usman is a scary dude, winner of 15 fights in a row in his professional MMA career. However, sports bettors are liking the price point on his opponent for UFC 251 on Saturday.
It’s not that Usman isn’t the significant favorite on paper in the welterweight title bout slated for five rounds. Bettors here just believe Masvidal is undervalued. Not many people — aside from those with money on Masvidal — believe Masvidal is a real-life favorite.
It also doesn’t help that Masvidal took the fight on about a week’s notice.
Masvidal opened at +230 earlier this week at FanDuel, and now sits at +215. FanDuel told Hoosier State Bets that 92% of all of its bets on the moneyline on Usman vs. Masvidal are on the latter fighter.
Masvidal has 13 losses on his MMA resume, compared to just a single defeat for Usman. However, 10 of Masvidal’s losses were on the scorecards. Just one of them was by TKO.
Masivdal has 48 career professional MMA fights and has never been knocked out.
FanDuel said that its largest bet so far on Masvidal was $2,272 at +220. The gambler would collect $7,272.
Usman opened at -300 and now sits at -260.
Risks with betting on Masvidal
It’s worth disclosing that the author of this article doesn’t like the prices on either Usman or Masvidal. In other words, the fighters are probably priced fairly and thus it’s not a fight worth wagering on.
However, you need not be this nitty and you can definitely take either moneyline for some skin in the game.
As previously stated, Usman is a stud and his last three opponents of Colby Covington, Tyron Woodley, and Rafael dos Anjos are arguably a tougher recent stretch of fights than Masvidal’s last three foes of Nate Diaz, Ben Askren, and Darren Till.
Masvidal lost back-to-back decisions before his three-fight win streak.
Recent strength of schedule goes to Usman, though Masvidal’s last three wins were all by impressive stoppages. Bettors are liking Masvidal by KO/TKO, as the odds at FanDuel have moved from +460 all the way down to +310. About 40% of bets on the market for method of victory have been on Masvidal by non-submission stoppage.
You may find more value in betting on Masvidal by points at +1100.
At any rate, Masvidal is quite the risk for bettors, but betting on Usman as such a favorite isn’t very appealing. There are plenty of other fights to wager on.